In Depth Look at the Atlanta Dream: In the W, Patience has Become a Lost Virtue
Pictured: Allisha Gray. Photo Courtesy of the Atlanta Dream.
Analysis of the Atlanta Dream Franchise
November 7, 2024
In America, the desire for instant gratification has grown over the years. Rather than working for perhaps years, the quick fix has become more of the targeted norm. So many players at college and pro levels want big compensation (NIL, now salary, etc.) before they scored their first baskets or secured their initial rebounds. In a somewhat similar way, WNBA franchises continue to yearn for the quick fix (fire the coach for starters) rather than planning for the long haul. Win this year or be replaced is a sadly unspoken refrain! Just look at the changes in WNBA leadership (6 head coaches axed) since the end of the 2024 season and a seventh (Stephanie White) has just changed teams.
The presentation will start with some comments on what it takes to win a WNBA title. Then we will dive into matters focusing on the Atlanta Dream (the franchise I am geographically located closed to). In turn the Atlanta sports market, venue needs of the franchise, ownership, fan interest, Dream post-season results over the years, coaching changes, draft history, player personnel moves, possible effects to the Dream with the upcoming expansion draft, and finally noteworthy Dream stats team and individual will be discussed.
Winning a title in the WNBA takes:
1. Luck to be bad in the right years to get top draft picks and then get a quality lottery pick.
2. The ability to attract prime free agents (there are perhaps 10 players you can build a championship team around and these individuals change as they mature and then move past their prime).
3. Conversely, the ability to hold on to your key players in an era when the grass often looks green (as in more compensation) in another city.
4. Finding the right role players to fill in the cracks without expending too much capital.
5. Avoiding injuries to key players. That has ruined many potentially successful WNBA seasons
You will notice #1 and #5 have a great deal of luck to each and overall building a winner usually takes time (and often some pain of failing along the road to victory lane)!
Luck of the draw
The Dream rode #1 overall 2009 pick Angel McCoughtry (arguably best player in Dream history) to three Final’s appearances. The Dream would not have the #1 pick again until 2022 when they took Rhyne Howard, who went on to be WNBA Rookie of the Year, and at #14 Naz Hillmon, who has started at times. If you look at drafts of the last 20 years, some drafts are a lot deeper than others as to high impact players.
The Atlanta sports market and playing site
In Georgia, sports priorities are simple. There’s football (college style probably #1), spring football and football recruiting news. Then comes everything else with the Atlanta Dream a small part of that. One can quickly surmise the reason why making a professional women’s basketball franchise a success in such a climate is difficult to say the least.
Approaching 20 years as part of the Atlanta sports market, perhaps the greatest insult to the Dream came this summer when more fans were in State Farm Arena cheering for Caitlin Clark and her Indiana Fever than their home team (the Dream). The sad truth is the Dream has never been fully embraced by the Atlanta sports community win or lose. Understanding this makes it easier to grasp why the first two ownership operations moved on after a relatively short period of time.
A brief look at ownership history
Stability of leadership is often a key to success in any organization. Some professional franchises have not changed ownership for many decades being passed down from generation to generation within a family. Conversely, in its 17 years of play, the Dream had had four separate ownership groups.
The franchise began play in 2008 under the ownership of Atlanta businessman Ron Terwilliger. After the 2009 season, Kathy Betty took control of the team under the business entity Dream Too, LLC. During the 2011 season, the team was sold to Atlanta-based Mary Brock and Kelly Loeffler.
In February 2021, the Dream changed ownership triggered by perceived opposition by then U.S. Senator Kelly Loeffler toward the league’s racial justice initiatives and demands by Dream players that she sell the Dream.
The new (and current) majority owner is Larry Gottesdiener whose firm Northland Investment Corp is based in Massachusetts. Despite this, Gottesdiener indicated that he had no plans to move the franchise and it is still in Fulton County Georgia after four seasons under his leadership. Please note that former WNBA player Renee Montgomery is a minority owner of the franchise.
One thing that cannot be denied was the timing of this purchase could not have been much better! While prior owners most likely were treading water financially with the Dream, franchise value has jumped dramatically over the last few years. Advertised at $10 million for purchase of a WNBA franchise even a decade ago, they are now worth many times that. Recent expansion franchises have been advertised as going for $50 million to $125 million (Portland). Rumored bidding for a sixteenth (final one of current expansion) is being talked of as being in the $200 million range.
Assuming growth of interest in the WNBA continues, what would the Dream bring on the open market say in five years? Timing any sale involves the value of tax breaks of ownership and any future profit against the windfall of profit gained from the sale. With no more expansion past 16 planned in the immediate future, who knows how much the Dream would be worth to an owner in another city who thinks they could put a lot more than 3,500 fans (Gateway Center Arena capacity) nightly into seats.
Fan interest/crowd support
Over the years prior to the pandemic, I occasionally attended games in then Philips Arena (now State Farm Arena) where the Dream have played for most of its existence. Sadly, attendance was not very good despite advertised figures often several thousand more than actual. Several games I attended I referred to attendance as “modified emptiness” (maybe 1500 people in an arena of over 17,000 capacity). To the Dream’s credit, attendance now approaches or reaches the announced 3500 capacity of Gateway Center Arena for all but its two home games at State Farm where about 35,000 total paid to see the two games of the Caitlin Clark show (more Clark than Dream fans present at least at the one I attended). Until fans are regularly being turned away from Gateway, this facility meets the needs of the Dream. Even Georgia Tech’s McCamish Pavilion (capacity listed at 8,600, where the Dream played for a few years while Philips was being renovated) may be too large for regular use.
Dream post-season results over the years
In 17 years, the Dream has won no WNBA titles, reached the Final three times (last in 2013) never winning a WNBA Finals’ game (0-9), made it into the playoffs seven times and failed to qualify for the post-season seven times. Pretty middle of the pack if you ask me!
WNBA coaching focusing on the Atlanta Dream coaching over the years
America is not a country of patient people, and neither are WNBA owners. Cheryl Reeve has coached the Minnesota Lynx to four WNBA titles since taking command of the team in 2010. The next most tenured coach is Noelle Quinn of the Seattle Storm with four years.
Over the 17 seasons, aside from interims, the Dream have had five head coaches. Lasting the longest (4+ seasons) with the most playoff success (eight wins and two trips to WNBA Finals) was Marynell Meadors who also served as general manager during her tenure.
Recently dismissed head coach Tanisha Wright posted a 48-68 regular season (0-4 playoffs) record in her three years at the helm. Both Wright and current GM Dan Padover (fifth general manager in team’s existence) came over from the Las Vegas Aces organization in October 2021. According to a press release, both Wright and Padover were given contract extensions thru the 2027 season in December 2022. After two more seasons, Wright got axed with three years left on her contract (which does indicate a strong financial position for the franchise).
Did Wright deserve the dismissal?
Looking strictly at on-court performance, given injuries to key players (star Rhyne Howard missed 10 games, improving point guard Jordin Canada 20 games, and post Cheyenne Parker-Tyus 15 games), this writer would have stayed the course for another season. The eight-game losing streak (mostly without Canada and Howard) from June 30 (7-9 prior) through July 17 (7-17 at the Olympic break) probably sealed Wright’s fate.
The team finished the season still with that negative 10 (15-25) differential. If healthy, the Dream probably would have avoided #1 seed New York Liberty by finishing further up the standings and had a better chance to advance to another round. Even though the Dream was swept (as was expected), the team competed and was not embarrassed by the Liberty. But again, patience is not an American virtue with six of 12 WNBA head coaches fired after the 2024 season (plus Connecticut’s Stephanie White moving on to the Indiana Fever).
Dream player personnel moves including draft history
Before getting into draft moves, the reader needs to realize a WNBA draft is kind of like a bottle of wine. There are a few great (deep in talent) years and a few barren years. Most are somewhere in between with a typical draft having six to eight players of WNBA starter quality. Thus, some years, a GM will struggle to find an impactful pick even in the middle of round one. Some years the first overall pick is franchise changing and in other years just another good player.
The position of general manager (or however an organization refers to the person who ultimately decides who stays on a team’s roster or not) is not one that will win a popularity contest as the goal is to make the team a champion or at least a championship contender. Players will get cut or traded.
From this vantage point, it appears Dream GM Padover has done a respectable job given the hand that he was dealt in taking over the duties before the 2022 season. Drafting Rhyne Howard with the number 1 pick in 2022 was a winner with her garnering rookie of the year honors. Second round pick Naz Hillmon has also been productive in a starter and rotational role.
Pictured: Rhyne Howard. Photo Courtesy of Atlanta Dream.
The 2023 draft did not yield close to the same results as #6 pick Haley Jones has struggled to be productive (being a bit of a tweener) in her first two years. At #8, the Dream selected quality interior athlete Laeticia Amihere (a Canadian who played at South Carolina) whose scouting report from high school to the pros has always been about “high upside” so far still never realized. The only player missed on appears to be Jordan Horston (#9 to Seattle). A tall, highly athletic perimeter player, outside shooting has been Horston’s issue, but she has outperformed either of the Dream’s first round picks of 2023 over two seasons. Given other wings, her presence on the Dream would not likely have been a difference maker.
In 2024, the Dream went foreign with Nyadiew Puoch of Australia at #12, fellow Australian Isobel Borlase at #20 and Matilde Villa of Italy at #32. None played for the Dream in 2024. Given that the Dream first pick in 2025 is at #18 having bartered the #6 pick to obtain quality wing Allisha Gray, any roster improvements for the Dream will likely come from landing one or more free agents or a contribution from one of the 2024 draftees when finally showing up.
In February 2024, the Dream traded for Jordin Canada and 2025 pick #12, giving up Aari McDonald and 2025 pick #8 to Los Angeles. To date, this move would have to be considered a Dream win as Canada has helped stabilize the point guard position whereas McDonald was more of an energizer for the Sparks and one of several unsuccessful point guard candidates this season.
A major move before this year was adding veteran free agent forward Tina Charles who had skipped the 2023 WNBA season. After a strong 2024 campaign, one would think the Dream would like the former #1 pick of 2010 to return but the jury is still out if she will. Charles is widely thought of as the best player (at least active) never to have made the WNBA Finals. If that is her objective (given she is near the end of her career), a move to another team for 2025 would not be surprising unless Charles can be shown reason(s) that the Dream may be a serious contender this coming season.
Pictured: Tina Charles. Photo Courtesy of the Atlanta Dream.
Let’s look at telling regular season Dream 2024 team stats
The first thing that jumps out at you is the Dream was the poorest shooting team in the entire league shooting 40.8% from the field overall. Best was the Fever at 45.4%. Mid-pack team-wise was 43-44%.
From behind the arc, the Dream was 11th at 30.8%. Best was the Lynx at 38.0% with mid-pack around 33%. In other significant stats, the Dream was better than their eighth-seed status finishing third in rebounding, fourth in fewest turnovers and sixth in opposition field goal percentage at 42.9%. Interestingly, the Lynx was first (41.0%) and Liberty second (42.0%) in this category.
Other than shooting (obviously very important), Dream stats look like those of a playoff team but not a topflight contender.
Possible effect of upcoming WNBA expansion draft
Almost certainly the Dream will protect Jordin Canada, Allisha Gray, Naz Hillmon. Rhyne Howard and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus. For the sixth protection, the franchise could go in several directions, but no loss would be crushing. As a twice cored unrestricted free agent, Tina Charles cannot be protected.
Let us look at key 2024 Dream regular season individual stats
Rhyne Howard as the Dream’s leading scorer averaged 17.3 ppg but shot a below average 37.1% from the field and a close to the WNBA team mean with 32.9% for 3’s. For her three-year career, she has shot 37.3% from the field and 34.2% (respectable) for 3’s. Can Howard be your championship cornerstone player? Most would say this data shows more the numbers of “Robin” than “Batman!”
Allisha Gray (now in the prime of her career) was the Dream’s second leading scorer averaging 15.6 ppg on still below average 40.3% from the field and a decent 34.2% from deep. For her eight-year career, she has averaged 42.6% from the field and similar to this year 34.7% from behind the arc. Solid but not great!
In her fourteenth season, Tina Charles averaged 14.9 ppg on 45.6% from the field but a weak 26.2% from deep. Fortunately, just under 10% of her shots were 3’s. Career-wise she has shot a very similar 45.1% from the field and 32.0% from deep (so a drop off on that latter stat). Tina’s rebounding remained close to her career average at 9.6 rpg (9.3 rpg career). Can the Dream keep her in the fold for another year and if so, can she continue to produce with efficient numbers?
Cheyanne Parker-Tyus dropped in production in 2024 to 9.2 ppg on 44.4% from the field from 15.0 ppg on 48.2% from the field in 2023. Then she missed the final 15 games due to injury.
Finally, let’s look at the Dream point guard situation. Due to injury, Jordin Canada only played 20 of 40 regular season games and her stats do not show up in the final WNBA official stats (probably due to insufficient games played). Still her 10.6 ppg, 5.8 assists per game and 2.8 assist/turnover ratio show that her absence for much of the first half of the season significantly hurt the Dream cause. Haley Jones, who started much of the time in place of Canada, posted only a 1.2 assist/turnover ratio. Crystal Dangerfield played about 14 minutes per game over 15 games until Canada returned to the floor. She was then cut leaving with averages of 3.1 ppg, 1.7 apg and a 1.2 assist to turnover ratio. From the field she shot 27.8% with a 21.7% for three’s (similarly bad to Haley Jones). Given much less playing time after Canada settled into the point guard role, it is unfair to compare Jones’s production per game. It is obvious the Dream was stronger at point guard with Canada although neither Canada nor Jones shot the ball well (under 40% from the field) combining them put it at 39.6%. For three’s both were under 30%. Add in Dangerfield’s numbers and the shooting for the regular season was even worse at this position.
Conclusions
It appears the Dream will be back at Gateway in 2025. Whether they will still be Georgia-based in 10 more years probably depends on whether the Greater Atlanta sports community more fully embraces the franchise than to date and whether the franchise could be significantly more successful in another city attracting an out-of-town buyer willing to pay big bucks.
At any one time, there may be 10 players in the league that a franchise can build around to win a WNBA title. If you do not have at least one of them, the team can certainly make the post-season but is probably not going to be a legitimate title contender that year. The Dream has “quality pieces” in Howard and Gray but can either be the player to lead a team to a title? Obviously, the team needs to re-sign Tina Charles or find another player to match her production.
Will the next coach be able to cure the Dream’s below average shooting from the field while maintaining strength in other areas? Perhaps, more than anything, they need to have key players stay healthy. As for leadership, whether the Dream or any franchise in any sport, this writer would recommend finding quality leadership and grow with them even if it means a few years of perceived failure. There is way too much expectation of a quick path to victory but that is the psyche of much of America today in sports and society in general. It took the New York Liberty 28 years to win its first WNBA title. The Atlanta Dream has only completed 17!
Final thought
In 2001, a rock group called the Go-Go’s released a song titled Stuck in My Car. So many sports franchises remind me of the unfortunate situation of trying to get somewhere (here win a championship or seriously contend for one) but no matter what is attempted, it seems to only come back to where it started then repeating the process again and again. Whether a person or a sports franchise, this should be avoided if at all possible.