Mid-March Observations on National No. 1 Races
National Player of the Year candidate Sienna Betts.
All the Questions, All the Considerings …
March 17, 2025
I have been involved in girls’ basketball since the 1980’s and have been particularly involved with rankings issues and naming national award winners for over a decade. The 2024-2025 season will go down as one with a lot of twists and turns and to some extent leave with multiple questions with debatable answers.
Who is number #1 team in US high school girls’ basketball?
This depends on what are your criteria as well as which teams can be considered. Are you doing a power rating (which cares more about a potential matchup than past results) or a true national ranking (where all results figure in)?
Power Rating
If you do not care about the past, Etiwanda with five losses is the hot team having beaten Ontario Christian on the third try and then finished off a weakened Archbishop Mitty which was never quite the same as before the dreaded ACL came a calling (just as it did with Hebron Christian of Georgia which lost two future major D1 players and a season ending upset to Holy Innocents’). Montverde may also be in play here.
Traditional Ranking
Here all losses count along with strength of schedule and quality wins. In a pre-season or very early season ranking, the power rating factor is large but diminishes in importance as factual results start to become more abundant. It appears more and more that the power rating concept is becoming the hidden agenda for what may claim to be a traditional ranking.
A five-loss team (as Etiwanda is) has never been named a theoretical national champion. In spite of what one may read, girls’ basketball does not have one but rather a collection of resumes (like the 1950’s in football) rather than this past year with the new 12-team college football playoffs.
Starting this season, MaxPreps did not consider non-Federation schools or non-state series Federation schools in its top 25. It was supposed to have a separate poll for schools like IMG, Montverde, and Westtown but instead they just got put into limbo. Hopefully, this will be resolved next year with a separate poll or returning to inclusion for all non-reclassifying (no 5th-year players allowed) schools. Other polls continue to include IMG, Montverde and Westtown mentioned below.
This year (unlike last with Long Island Lutheran’s resume of close to 10 wins over nationally ranked teams) only teams that win their last sanctioned game should be considered. The old adage is “you cannot be the national champion without being a state champion of some kind.”
Thus, the candidates really still alive in the debate are just a few with resumes below (with records as posted on MaxPreps):
Maryland’s Bishop McNamara (29-1): It may have the strongest resume when combining record and strength of schedule. The team went undefeated in the strong WCAC (at times this season St. John’s and Bishop Ireton have been ranked in one or more polls) with three wins over Bishop Ireton and two over St. John’s. Outside the conference, it beat Fort Erie (Canada) shortly before Montverde (later beat Fort Eire after two key players left for college) lost to Fort Erie in December. Other quality wins over teams ranked in one or more polls at some point include Bullis, IMG (beaten by 23 to only 9 by Montverde), Clackamas, Grandview, and Westtown. The team beat St. Frances of Baltimore in Maryland’s post-season private school event by 54 to Morris Catholic which only beat St. Frances by 3. The only loss on resume is to Mater Dei (by four) while Etiwanda beat Mater Dei twice (by three and ten).
California’s Etiwanda (28-5): Its claim to fame is taking the CIF Open Division title winning the third time (after two losses) versus Ontario Christian and then beating Archbishop Mitty by 16 in the CIF final. Other quality wins out of state include Sidwell Friends (DC champs) and Incarnate Word (of St. Louis - ending its 141-game win streak) plus in-state two wins over nationally ranked Mater Dei. Besides the two losses to Ontario Christian, the team lost before January to Texas schools Cypress Springs and Duncanville as well as Long Island Lutheran (not as strong as last year). Regardless, it appears one or more supposed traditional rankings are going to discount these losses emphasizing the strong finish.
Florida’s IMG (17-4): With four losses (one to Bishop McNamara), I do not see this team as in the title hunt even if winning Chipotle Nationals (two games). Quality wins versus teams that appeared in one or more polls included Duncanville and Faith Family of Texas as well as Long Island Lutheran. The Etiwanda (season complete) finish would still be more compelling even with the extra loss.
Florida’s Montverde (25-1): Its only loss was in December to Fort Erie (Canada) discussed above. It has wins over the following teams which are or have been ranked in one or more polls. They include Purcell Marian, Winston Salem Christian, Faith Family (twice by 5 and 22), Pewaukee, Long Island Lutheran and IMG. It will open (based on rankings) with Faith Family in Chipotle Nationals (April 2-5 in Indiana). The opposite side of the four-team bracket is IMG vs Westtown.
New Jersey’s Morris Catholic (28-0): Its biggest claim to title share would be that it is an undefeated #2 on MaxPreps with wins over most of the top New Jersey teams plus a four-point win over Archbishop Mitty. From a rankings view, its season is now complete because New Jersey is not allowing play in Chipotle Nationals and participation in The Throne technically does not represent schools as it is an unsanctioned event. Have they done enough being undefeated? For multiple other undefeated ranked schools (Johnston of Iowa, Providence Academy of Minnesota and Ridgeline of Utah to name three), the answer appears to be “no”.
Pennsylvania ‘s Westtown (27-3): This Pennsylvania school has a win over Bishop Ireton that has spent time in one or more polls but lost to Canadian power Crestwood and Legion Prep of Texas. In both cases the team was very shorthanded. Also, it lost to Bishop McNamara soon thereafter so still may not have been 100% if that matters to the ranking body. A power rating may consider them with two wins (IMG and perhaps Montverde in the final) at Chipotle Nationals. However, this still may not be enough for a traditional ranking as one of the three losses is to Bishop McNamara (above).
Conclusions: Montverde is still in play and a Chipotle National title could put them over the top in polls other than MaxPreps (where the team is not eligible).
Bishop McNamara has the best resume to date but opted to play in The Thone which should not be counted in records as all teams will be participating as club teams as the event is not sanctioned by the participating state associations. Why go? It is an all-expenses paid trip to Metro New York (event played just across the Hudson River in New Jersey). Winning school will get a $10,000 prize. Money talks!
Morris Catholic may be undefeated, but its resume is not close to that of one-loss Bishop McNamara. New Jersey did not allow any Chipotle participation this year when it had a few years ago. Will MaxPreps which has Morris #2 raise them to number 1 or once again “go California Dreaming” with five-loss Etiwanda?
Based on last year, I expect one or more polls to ignore the five losses of Etiwanda and name them national champs for breaking through at the end in California. This would be something unprecedented in the girls’ basketball rankings world. From this former traditionalist ranker, it is really Bishop McNamara or Montverde, but like last year when this writer supported Long Island Lutheran’s claim, I sense “what have you done for me lately” (Etiwanda) is what will carry the day.
Who should be national high school player of the year?
Until this week, five strong candidates existed and a good case for the honor could be made for each. One thing all had in common was the possibility of leading their team to a season ending championship.
Kaleena Smith (5-5, point guard, 2027, Ontario Christian [CA] High School) was in the lead until stumbling 67-62 to Etiwanda in what amounts to the California Open Division semifinals. As awards go, Smith should still rank at the top amongst sophomores (class of 2027) but for top overall player in this crowded field, I think it is wait until next year for the one called Special K.
Things were looking good for my favorite senior Jazzy Davidson (6-1 guard, Southern Cal commit) as her Clackamas team was poised to win the Oregon state 6A title, up 51-33 over Tualatin with about three minutes left in the third quarter. Clackamas would score only seven more points over the next 11 minutes, getting shocked 63-58 by a young Tualatin team behind its star freshman point guard Love Lei Best who finished with 26 points. Two things happened that turned the tide. Clackamas struggled from up 18 with the Tualatin 1-3-1 zone and in the middle of this, Davidson got hurt (appeared to be an ankle). Although she played most of those 11 minutes, she was unable to score and the other four starters (all seniors with college scholarships) failed to step up. Davidson finished with a respectable 17 points and 10 rebounds but not the championship that was expected. Davidson has already garnered McDonald’s All-American honors and should receive all Oregon player-of-the year-award. However, in this tight field, falling short of the state title knocks her out of this race from this perspective.
The three still alive…
Senior guard Aaliyah Chavez (5-11, Lubbock, Monterey High School) led her team to the UIL Texas Girls Basketball State 5A Division 2 Championship [Texas now has 12 titles, up from six, separate high school championships based on school enrollment] with a 37-5 record. Ranked #1 by ESPN HoopGurlz for 2025, she will soon announce her college choice. Badly beaten earlier this year in an on-court match-up with Kaleena Smith, I question whether Chavez (can be a volume shooter (8/26 from the field in the final) at times) is clearly the best guard for this season.
Aaliyah Chavez won multiple Nike EYBL titles and a UIL State Title this year.
Senior post Sienna Betts (6-4, Grandview High School, UCLA signee) carried her team to Colorado’s 6A title. Often, she is double-teamed in the paint but still manages to score. She is ranked #2 by ESPN HoopGurlz for the class of 2025. There is little debate that she is the best low post player in her class. Of the five candidates, she has the least amount of on-court help from teammates.
Junior Saniyah Hall (6-2, guard/forward, Montverde Academy, Florida) may be the best all-around player in high school ball today. From Ohio (where she still plays club ball), Hall can score at all three levels, rebounds strongly, and while not known for defense, can make big defensive plays at critical moments. She has shined versus high level competition. As one of five future major D1 players starting, she has the most potential for on-court help from teammates. With Montverde playing in Chipotle Nationals, she has two more chances to make a case for national player-of-the-year but needs to win both games.
Final answer for now: From this writer’s perspective, it is down to senior Betts and junior Hall.
Saniyah Hall is still in the running for Player of the Year in some discussions.